::AIAI
memorandum on short-term
and long-term
measures to revive the Indian economy
::
The
country is emerging from a closed economy and it
is in a transition phase. The mindset is changing
but it has not percolated to lower levels of administration.
The intensity of economic slowdown has become evident
with three key sectors ( Agriculture, Industry
& Services ) decelerating sharply. The fiscal
deficit is out of control. Consumer spending and
investor confidence is at low ebb. The Central and
many State Governments are facing near bankruptcy.
The Financial sector is facing a crisis of confidence
with key institutions in the red and the fear of
the midnight knock by investigating agencies looming
large.
The investment climate must be brightened up. The
All India Association of Industries (AIAI) feels
that imaginative policies and programmes are needed
to motivate industrial and agricultural growth,
in the absence of which, a 9% growth rate remains
an illusory target and at best an average growth
rate of merely 5% can be achieved. AIAI feels that
both short-term and long-term measures are needed
for this purpose. The strongest factor in favors of India incorporated is $ 44 billion in foreign
exchange reserves.
The reason for the slowdown is thus apparent in
public investment, which is down from 30.18% to
16.96% due to curtailment of capital expenditure
to bring down the fiscal deficit. The deficit
is down but the lack of investment to spur demand
has created havoc with business and trade in its
aftermath. Though economic reforms have generated
higher levels of income, these are confined to
few states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil
Nadu, while Bihar, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh continue
to suffer with low or no purchasing power. The
slowdown has been building up for many years now
due to failure of successive governments to stem
the rot. The main factor, which has destabilised
the corporate and the business sectors, is the
steep fall in demand at the macro level. Private
consumption has been growing at a low annual rate
of just 3% and the decline is spread across all
income groups.
The
government must initiate immediate measures
to curb the Inspector Raj with a firm hand.
A lower tax regime will enable larger collections
and compliance. At present nearly 78% of taxes
are paid by the Industrial sector alone. This
makes it imperative to spread the tax burden
evenly over the entire economy. There is possibility
of raising significant revenue from services.
The government and the private sector must
become equal partners in the development process.
There must be no further delay in the disinvestments
process so that additional funds can be raised
to boost economic growth. There is a distinct
deficiency of demand led growth. It is learnt
that an estimated Rs.50,000 crores is lying
unutilized by different government ministries.
17
out of 28 states are near bankrupt. Maharashtra
is one of them. The question is whether
the money is there. Earlier even in fiscal
crisis, expenditure was undertaken. Is it
that the government machinery has collapsed,
or there is no money. The finance ministry
is clueless. Everyone is clueless. The center
and the state must also collaborate to draw
up a national agenda to spur demand in all
sectors. The government is feeling the pinch
of the cash crunch. It has therefore resorted
to indiscriminate tax search and seizures
and is trying to grab money.
On
the other hand, it is feasible to bring
down taxes to 20% and declare new disclosure
laws so that black money generation and
evasion is wiped out. In addition, the business
sentiment must be improved through innovative
policies to encourage investment. Further,
lowering of the tax burden will improve
consumer spending. Reducing taxes will bring
more money for investment and productive
activities. Incentives can be considered
for investment in industrial growth. Another
alternative can be to reduce taxes and do
away with incentives. An excise cut from
16% to 10% or even below to 5% will benefit
an estimated 100 crore consumers and result
in consumer demand for cheaper and more
affordable goods. It is necessary to create
optimism and demand for consumption led
growth. There must be immediate implementation
of a uniform value added tax. Hard decisions
are called for in hard times. We must chose
between tax cuts or investments. In trying
to find the golden mean, India must let
the world know that it is in a better position
than most developing countries to become
a global player. Modern management practices
have enabled Indian companies to do well.
India has the largest pool of trained and
technical manpower. Inflation and the exchange
rate are stable.
Diplomatic
and trade mission must launch a massive
media blitz and road shows to attract global
attention that India is still the most attractive
investment destination. Indian industry
and trade must brace themselves to move
out of the transition phase even as the
economy is restructured through second-generation
reforms to remove the gloom and crisis of
confidence. The perceived change in mindset
must percolate to all levels and embrace
all sectors The experience of other country
shows that during the great depression,
expenditure was stepped up to build infrastructure
and provide housing. Spot decisions are
required to remove bottlenecks in investments.
The moot factor is implementation, leadership
and structural adjustments. Internationally,
tax rates in India are comparable and not
so bad. There is the distinct possibility
of improved economic growth, which in the
long term will have a positive impact on
the fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit can
also be pruned by reducing non-plan expenditure
and downsizing. It is essential that there
is a feel good factor.
Politics
must be in full command of the economy.
No economist has complained of the government
inertia. There is a feeling of despondency
and hopelessness. These economists must
influence public opinion and prevent the
government from misbehaving. Think tanks
worldwide influence public opinion and point
out how to get the government to take the
right steps. All government appointed committees
are in a sense nationalized and there is
no independent thinking to reach the people.
It is essential to educate public opinion
to influence politicians.
Indian brand of
democracy is not suitable for economic
growth. Most countries have first begun
the process of growth and then become
democratic. We have done the reverse.
Suggestion
:
It is in the interest of developing
countries like India to rethink its
political system, spurn populist democracy
and consider benevolent democracy. The
Indian crab mentality, which is hurting
all sections, must go once and for all.
It is essential to restore political
stability through consensus among all
political parties on measures to revive
the economy. A special session of parliament
can be convened to arrive at such a
consensus by taking into account all
view points and chalking out a national
agenda for economic growth.
Problem
:
Foreign investment
cannot be forthcoming if there is an
unresponsive civil service.
Suggestion
:
India
has great potential as a machining and
manufacturing base for European markets,
including UK, where manufacturing is
down. To improve India's external image,
a complete overhaul of the civil service
is called for as done in many other
countries to induct professionals. The
government administration must play
the role of a facilitator and leave
the task of boosting economic growth
to professionals who have the necessary
acumen and expertise to arrest the slowdown.
The foremost task is to ease the strain
from internal debt and initiate long-
term structural reforms. At any cost,
the state of public finances must not
be allowed to worsen. Vested interests
thwarting public sector reforms must
be shown the door. A clear signal must
be sent out that second generation reforms
were progressing rapidly and budgeted
spending on infrastructure is poised
to grow significantly. These reforms
must embrace essential sectors like
power, labour, judicial administration,
competition laws, exit norms for bankruptcy
and speedy settlement of arrears.
Problem
:
Pump priming cannot contain the
fiscal deficit as the 5th pay
commission's recommendations have
derailed the deficit. Revenue
expenditure is up while capital
expenditure has been postponed.
Prudent norms are being followed
only to check the fiscal deficit
but in other areas, they are being
ignored. Bank deposits have a
fixed rate of return and so risks
cannot be taken. There is a also
dichotomy between development
banking and commercial banking.
At the state level, the interest
burden and non performing state
enterprises have rendered budget
deficits unmanageable.
Suggestion
:
It
is necessary to create employment
by infrastructure development.
The ability to implement policy
decision is breaking down and
must be strengthened. Revenue
expenditure is still high while
capital expenditure is down. There
must be a conducive atmosphere
to attract investment. Revenue
lying with banks, employees arrears,
voluntary retirement scheme proceeds
can be channeled to the bond market
to raise resources. There is a
huge latent demand in infrastructure
with forward and backward linkages,
which must be untapped. In addition,
we must influence NRIs and campaign
abroad to forge a new partnership
for progress. We must change all
allergies and defeat all obstacles
to investment through, transparency,
simplification and rationalization.
The single window, one stop solution
is still a myth. This paradigm
must be at the core of the new
development process for the entire
exercise of attracting investment
hinges on reducing the gestation
period and acting swiftly. Development
banking has proved to be the bane
of the Indian economy with most
financial institutions faring
poorly. On the other, commercial
banking has come of age and must
be pursued vigorously to dovetail
industrial and agricultural activity
with banking activity. At the
state level, the priority is to
privatize state enterprises, the
investments , in which approximate
one fourth of the total debts
and other liabilities. Privatisation
of such enterprises will help
retire state debts, reduce outflows
on account of subsidies and help
lower their interest burden, which
is pegged at 15% of the total
expenditure of states.