:: AIAI memorandum on short-term and long-term measures to revive the Indian economy ::

The country is emerging from a closed economy and it is in a transition phase. The mindset is changing but it has not percolated to lower levels of administration. The intensity of economic slowdown has become evident with three key sectors ( Agriculture, Industry & Services ) decelerating sharply. The fiscal deficit is out of control. Consumer spending and investor confidence is at low ebb. The Central and many State Governments are facing near bankruptcy. The Financial sector is facing a crisis of confidence with key institutions in the red and the fear of the midnight knock by investigating agencies looming large.

The investment climate must be brightened up. The All India Association of Industries (AIAI) feels that imaginative policies and programmes are needed to motivate industrial and agricultural growth, in the absence of which, a 9% growth rate remains an illusory target and at best an average growth rate of merely 5% can be achieved. AIAI feels that both short-term and long-term measures are needed for this purpose. The strongest factor in favors of India incorporated is $ 44 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

The reason for the slowdown is thus apparent in public investment, which is down from 30.18% to 16.96% due to curtailment of capital expenditure to bring down the fiscal deficit. The deficit is down but the lack of investment to spur demand has created havoc with business and trade in its aftermath. Though economic reforms have generated higher levels of income, these are confined to few states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, while Bihar, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh continue to suffer with low or no purchasing power. The slowdown has been building up for many years now due to failure of successive governments to stem the rot. The main factor, which has destabilised the corporate and the business sectors, is the steep fall in demand at the macro level. Private consumption has been growing at a low annual rate of just 3% and the decline is spread across all income groups.

SHORT TERM MEASURES

 
 
 

The government must initiate immediate measures to curb the Inspector Raj with a firm hand. A lower tax regime will enable larger collections and compliance. At present nearly 78% of taxes are paid by the Industrial sector alone. This makes it imperative to spread the tax burden evenly over the entire economy. There is possibility of raising significant revenue from services. The government and the private sector must become equal partners in the development process. There must be no further delay in the disinvestments process so that additional funds can be raised to boost economic growth. There is a distinct deficiency of demand led growth. It is learnt that an estimated Rs.50,000 crores is lying unutilized by different government ministries.

17 out of 28 states are near bankrupt. Maharashtra is one of them. The question is whether the money is there. Earlier even in fiscal crisis, expenditure was undertaken. Is it that the government machinery has collapsed, or there is no money. The finance ministry is clueless. Everyone is clueless. The center and the state must also collaborate to draw up a national agenda to spur demand in all sectors. The government is feeling the pinch of the cash crunch. It has therefore resorted to indiscriminate tax search and seizures and is trying to grab money.

On the other hand, it is feasible to bring down taxes to 20% and declare new disclosure laws so that black money generation and evasion is wiped out. In addition, the business sentiment must be improved through innovative policies to encourage investment. Further, lowering of the tax burden will improve consumer spending. Reducing taxes will bring more money for investment and productive activities. Incentives can be considered for investment in industrial growth. Another alternative can be to reduce taxes and do away with incentives. An excise cut from 16% to 10% or even below to 5% will benefit an estimated 100 crore consumers and result in consumer demand for cheaper and more affordable goods. It is necessary to create optimism and demand for consumption led growth. There must be immediate implementation of a uniform value added tax. Hard decisions are called for in hard times. We must chose between tax cuts or investments. In trying to find the golden mean, India must let the world know that it is in a better position than most developing countries to become a global player. Modern management practices have enabled Indian companies to do well. India has the largest pool of trained and technical manpower. Inflation and the exchange rate are stable.

Diplomatic and trade mission must launch a massive media blitz and road shows to attract global attention that India is still the most attractive investment destination. Indian industry and trade must brace themselves to move out of the transition phase even as the economy is restructured through second-generation reforms to remove the gloom and crisis of confidence. The perceived change in mindset must percolate to all levels and embrace all sectors The experience of other country shows that during the great depression, expenditure was stepped up to build infrastructure and provide housing. Spot decisions are required to remove bottlenecks in investments. The moot factor is implementation, leadership and structural adjustments. Internationally, tax rates in India are comparable and not so bad. There is the distinct possibility of improved economic growth, which in the long term will have a positive impact on the fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit can also be pruned by reducing non-plan expenditure and downsizing. It is essential that there is a feel good factor.

Politics must be in full command of the economy. No economist has complained of the government inertia. There is a feeling of despondency and hopelessness. These economists must influence public opinion and prevent the government from misbehaving. Think tanks worldwide influence public opinion and point out how to get the government to take the right steps. All government appointed committees are in a sense nationalized and there is no independent thinking to reach the people. It is essential to educate public opinion to influence politicians.

 
 
LONG TERM MEASURES

 
 
Problem :
   
 


Indian brand of democracy is not suitable for economic growth. Most countries have first begun the process of growth and then become democratic. We have done the reverse.

 
Suggestion :
 
 


It is in the interest of developing countries like India to rethink its political system, spurn populist democracy and consider benevolent democracy. The Indian crab mentality, which is hurting all sections, must go once and for all. It is essential to restore political stability through consensus among all political parties on measures to revive the economy. A special session of parliament can be convened to arrive at such a consensus by taking into account all view points and chalking out a national agenda for economic growth.

 
Problem :
     
 
Foreign investment cannot be forthcoming if there is an unresponsive civil service.


Suggestion :
 


India has great potential as a machining and manufacturing base for European markets, including UK, where manufacturing is down. To improve India's external image, a complete overhaul of the civil service is called for as done in many other countries to induct professionals. The government administration must play the role of a facilitator and leave the task of boosting economic growth to professionals who have the necessary acumen and expertise to arrest the slowdown. The foremost task is to ease the strain from internal debt and initiate long- term structural reforms. At any cost, the state of public finances must not be allowed to worsen. Vested interests thwarting public sector reforms must be shown the door. A clear signal must be sent out that second generation reforms were progressing rapidly and budgeted spending on infrastructure is poised to grow significantly. These reforms must embrace essential sectors like power, labour, judicial administration, competition laws, exit norms for bankruptcy and speedy settlement of arrears.

 
Problem :
     
 


Pump priming cannot contain the fiscal deficit as the 5th pay commission's recommendations have derailed the deficit. Revenue expenditure is up while capital expenditure has been postponed. Prudent norms are being followed only to check the fiscal deficit but in other areas, they are being ignored. Bank deposits have a fixed rate of return and so risks cannot be taken. There is a also dichotomy between development banking and commercial banking. At the state level, the interest burden and non performing state enterprises have rendered budget deficits unmanageable.

Suggestion :
 


It is necessary to create employment by infrastructure development. The ability to implement policy decision is breaking down and must be strengthened. Revenue expenditure is still high while capital expenditure is down. There must be a conducive atmosphere to attract investment. Revenue lying with banks, employees arrears, voluntary retirement scheme proceeds can be channeled to the bond market to raise resources. There is a huge latent demand in infrastructure with forward and backward linkages, which must be untapped. In addition, we must influence NRIs and campaign abroad to forge a new partnership for progress. We must change all allergies and defeat all obstacles to investment through, transparency, simplification and rationalization. The single window, one stop solution is still a myth. This paradigm must be at the core of the new development process for the entire exercise of attracting investment hinges on reducing the gestation period and acting swiftly. Development banking has proved to be the bane of the Indian economy with most financial institutions faring poorly. On the other, commercial banking has come of age and must be pursued vigorously to dovetail industrial and agricultural activity with banking activity. At the state level, the priority is to privatize state enterprises, the investments , in which approximate one fourth of the total debts and other liabilities. Privatisation of such enterprises will help retire state debts, reduce outflows on account of subsidies and help lower their interest burden, which is pegged at 15% of the total expenditure of states.

 
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